Virginia: Red or Blue?

Ryan Newcomb

The Commonwealth of Virginia, the first state in the New World to be colonized by the English and the mother of more Presidents in U.S. history than any other state, will play a key role in the upcoming election.  Although Virginia’s greatest politician and intellectual, Thomas Jefferson, helped found the Democratic Party during the early days of American history, Virginia has typically voted Republican in every election since the early 20th Century. However, Democrats are hopeful that demographic changes in Northern and Central Virginia may turn the tide in the election this year. Realizing the importance of the Commonwealth’s electoral votes, both Barack Obama and John McCain are spending unscrupulous amounts of time and money campaigning in the Old Dominion.

Hoping to strengthen Obama’s ties with Richmond voters, former President Bill Clinton spoke at Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) in Richmond, VA on Sunday October 12th.  He spoke about the economy, the necessity for change in American politics, and the importance of the youth vote to a crowd of around 3,500-4,000 Obama supporters gathered at the Student Commons. Obama himself has appeared several times at VCU and Richmond when he campaigned for Governor Tim Kaine in 2005 and later attended a rally during the 2008 Democratic Primary with Hillary Clinton at VCU’s trademark Siegel Center building.

The Republicans are also attempting to increase their base of support in the Richmond area.  Within 24-hours of President Clinton’s speech at Virginia Commonwealth University, Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin attended a GOP rally at the Richmond International Raceway that attracted a much larger crowd than President Clinton. Low estimates run around 20,000 supporters attended the rally, but other reports indicate the number was closer to 30,000. Earlier that morning Palin also attended a similar rally in Virginia Beach with John McCain.

The Republicans are counting on Virginia’s conservative base to vote for John McCain. By adding Palin, a staunch conservative with an ability to draw crowds on par with Barack Obama, the GOP may have given the McCain ticket the edge it needs to keep Virginia red. The state itself is largely rural, dotted with small towns and cities, such as Lynchburg and Roanoke—all of which are “McCain Country.” Suburban population centers, such as Chesterfield County and Powhatan County, also tend to lean Republican in local and national elections.  The coastal regions, which include Virginia Beach and Newport News, have large numbers of military voters that are expected to vote for McCain as well.

Despite Virginia’s strong Republican base, political pundits are now labeling Virginia as a battleground state. This is due to Virginia’s electing several Democratic officials over the past decade, including the first black Governor to be elected in U.S. history, Douglas Wilder. After serving as Governor from 1990-1994, Wilder returned to politics in 2004 when he was elected Mayor of Richmond. Mark Warner, also a Democrat and a former Governor, is currently campaigning against Jim Gilmore to replace John Warner, a long time Republican Senator who is retiring this year.  Tim Kaine and Jim Webb, both Democrats, are political freshmen that were recently elected Governor and Senator, respectively.  The popularity of Virginia’s Democrats lead many to believe that Virginia will turn blue in this election.

What do you think?

Iran Forces Plane To Land

Ryan Newcomb

Today the Iranian media claimed that Iranian fighter jets forced a US plane to land after it violated the Islamic Republic’s airspace.  Iran’s Fars News Agency reported that the plane was headed for Afghanistan and was carrying five American military officials and three civilians, all of whom were released after a day of interrogation established that the plane had unintentionally entered Iranian airspace.

The Pentagon denied such claims. Spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Patrick Ryder commented on the situation, “According to the combined air operations centre, all our aircraft are accounted for and we have no reports of any aircraft landing in Iran.”

Later, Iran’s state television said the aircraft was not American, but was carrying in fact US military personnel.  The Islamic Republic is claiming that the aircraft was Hungarian.  So far the claim goes unconfirmed. If Iran indeed detained an aircraft and interrogated its passengers, it wouldn’t be surprising to some.  Many remember the incident that occurred in March 2007 when 15 British sailors were detained after Iran claimed that British vessels entered Iranian waters.

Some speculate that Iran is propagating lies. Many may remember the “Advanced Missile” that Iran claimed could be used to shut down the Straight of Hormuz, a narrow strip in the Persian Gulf where a majority of oil tankers depart the Middle East.  As it turned out, the missile testing photographs released by Iran were computer generated.

China and Taiwan

Ryan Newcomb

On October 3rd, 2008 it was reported that bureaucrats in the United States government sent notice to Congress that a contract worth $6 billion in military arms was awarded to the Republic of China in Taiwan. The trade includes advanced interceptor missiles, Apache helicopters, and submarine-launched missiles. Taiwan has a long history of weapons trade deals with the United States, so this should not come as a surprise to history students.  However, as global tensions rise and nations seem to be rushing to rearm themselves, some speculate that a military conflict between Taiwan and China will likely occur in the near future.

Taiwan, officially recognized as the Republic of China, is a large island off the coast of the Chinese mainland.  While the island is inhabited mostly by non-Chinese natives, there is a powerful Chinese ruling class that has made Taiwan it’s home for decades. During the Cold War, the communist revolution in China overthrew the Republic of China, a key U.S.-ally during World War II.  The remainder of the Nationalist forces retreated to Taiwan with nearly two million Chinese refugees, mainly from the military and elite classes. With no end to the Civil War in sight, the Republic of China declared martial law, established a provisional military government, and constructed extensive military fortifications to defend the island from repeated communist attacks.  For the remainder of the Cold War, the island of Taiwan experienced prosperous industrial development that established the island as one of the leading economic powers in Asia. By the 1990s, a trend of internal liberalization brought on by economic success resulted in the democratization of Taiwan.  According to the CIA Worldfact book, by the year 2000:

“Taiwan underwent its first peaceful transfer of power from the Nationalist to the Democratic Progressive Party. Throughout this period, the island prospered and became one of East Asia’s economic “Tigers.” The dominant political issues continue to be the relationship between Taiwan and China – specifically the question of eventual unification – as well as domestic political and economic reform.”

During this time, civil rights and freedoms were granted to all inhabitants of the island, political parties were allowed to legally operate, and an agreement was made between the Taiwanese and Chinese ethnic groups on the island as to their national identity:  the island itself would be commonly referred to as Taiwan, but the government would officially remain as the Republic of China.

The People’s Republic of China, commonly referred to as China, is under the control of the Communist Party and has always viewed Taiwan as a rebellious province.  China unsuccessfully attempted to take Taiwan through military force many times during the Cold War. It has also intensely shelled Taiwan repeatedly, and during the 1990s launched several rockets at the island. As of 2003, the U.S. Department of Defense reported to Congress that the People’s Liberation Army of China deployed missile systems along China’s coastline targeting Taiwan. By 2006 it was reported that as many as 800 missile systems have been setup. Coinciding with the placement of missile systems is the increase in the size of China’s military, which has undergone rapid modernization and expansion during the past ten years.

Looking at the Taiwan-China situation from the outside, the differences in the world views and political history of both nations seemingly create conditions that will inevitably result in a renewed military conflict. However, the relationship of the United States with both Taiwan and China may be the key to preventing such an outbreak. The U.S. is a long-term supporter of the Republic of China in Taiwan, yet maintains a powerful trade relationship with the People’s Republic.  Due to this unique relationship, the U.S. may be one of the only nations in the world that can diplomatically mediate disputes between both China and Taiwan. In fact, as recently as July 16, 2008, Admiral Keating, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, issued this hopeful statement in regards to the relationship between all three nations:

“I think it would be terrific if, over time, we would have Chinese military officers and Taiwan military officers and United States military officers, all sitting in the same classroom at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies,”

The presence of the Republic of China during the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing is a sign that Admiral Keating’s vision of cooperation is being realized.  However, with world tensions heating up over resource and energy consumption resulting in a rapid rearmament of many nations, the peace of the future, currently balanced on the tip of a knife, is uncertain.

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VIDEO

Richard Bush, former Chairman and Managing Director of the American Institute in Taiwan — the defacto U.S. embassy in Taiwan — discusses the relationship between the U.S., Taiwan and China and prospects for a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Bush is currently a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C.

What do you think?

Should the U.S. be selling weapons to Taiwan? Do you believe China will invade Taiwan? In the event that China does invade Taiwan, how should the U.S. respond?  What would be the consequences if the U.S. did intervene?  What would result of it didn’t?

US-India Nuclear Deal

Ryan Newcomb

For the past two weeks all eyes have been on the Congressional vote for the “Bailout” bill. However, bailing out America’s corporate elite hasn’t been the only roll call on the Hill this week.  Though hardly covered by the media, in a landslide 86-13 vote the Senate agreed on Wednesday October 1st to give India access to US civilian nuclear technology and fuel.  The House already passed the bill on September 27th with by a 181 vote margin.

Why is this significant? For one, India still refuses to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty— a requirement of all nations to receive the support of the United States in regards to nuclear development.  Essentially, Congress has given India the ability to increase the size and scope of it’s nuclear power industry without any oversight. President Bush stated that the deal would:

“…strengthen our global nuclear nonproliferation efforts, protect the environment, create jobs, and assist India in meeting its growing energy needs in a responsible manner.”

How is providing nuclear technology strengthening NON-PROLIFERATION efforts? How does nuclear energy protect the environment? What part of selling technology to a nation which may wield unregulated nuclear power due to its refusal to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is responsible? WHY IS THE MEDIA NOT COVERING THIS?

To clear up any possible confusion: this new US-India deal isn’t bringing nuclear technology to India— the country has actually possessed nuclear technology for decades.  In fact, it became a “nuclear power” in 1974 when it exploded it’s first atomic bomb, after which it was subjected to a nuclear trade ban from the United States because it had developed nuclear weapons without signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

The US-India deal is also significant in that it may rally international support for Iran’s nuclear research program. Iran, which signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1968, is on the receiving end of U.S. sanctions for its development of nuclear energy. It may be difficult for the United States to explain why it has made a deal with India, a nation which has not signed the treaty, when it has refused to so with Iran.

The deal may also force Pakistan, India’s unstable neighbor and longtime adversary, to request a similar deal from the United States. Pakistan, a country on the brink of a civil war, is in no position to make such a request.  It shelters al-Qaeda militants, possibly Osama bin Laden himself, and has leaked atomic secrets to Iran in the past.  There are fears that if such a request were refused, the al-Qaeda forces within Pakistan may gain enough support to attempt a coup on the country’s fragile government. Such an attempt would undoubtedly lead to a civil war, which would jeopardize the stability of the entire region.

What do you think?

Is Congress really concerned about the economy?  If so, why did it waste time on the US-India deal?  Why is the media not covering this? Why is it OK for the U.S. to make nuclear trade deals with India, yet condemn Iran? Should the US agree to make a similar deal with Pakistan? Is it dangerous that so many nations are gaining access to technology that will allow them to harness this kind of destructive force: