Ryan Newcomb
On September 11th, 2008 the Russian defense ministry announced that two of its strategic bombers landed in Venezuela. That same day, Venezuela expelled the US ambassador. Both events occurred just days after a Venezuelan announcement earlier in the week that it will host joint war games with the Russian Navy sometime before the New Year. It was also reported that Russian anti-submarine aircraft will be deployed in Venezuela. In light of Russia’s invasion of Georgia, it’s reaction to the European missile defense shield, and it’s dealings in the Middle East, the happenings in Venezuela are just some of the most recent developments in a string of alarming world events that indicate a new Cold War is forming.
Without being overshadowed by the Beijing Olympics, the situation in Georgia has certainly garnered a lot of attention from the media. On August 7th the Russian military invaded U.S.-ally Georgia and declared the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia to be independent and under Russian protection. A week later ships from the United States Navy began arriving in the Black Sea port of Batumi to deliver humanitarian aid shipments to the Georgian people. The US presence as well as the European Union’s demand for a peaceful resolution to the conflict, has pressured the Russians into backing down from further aggression. Since a French-brokered cease fire agreement, Georgia has already accused the Russians of breaking the agreement once.
When the US-Polish plan to construct a missile defense shield for Eastern Europe was first announced years ago, then President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia would develop nuclear warheads capable of penetrating such a shield. Following the finalization of the US-Polish agreement on August 14 of this year, Russian President Medvedev declared that nuclear missiles would be directed at Poland. The successful testing of the U.S.’s own missile defense shield earlier this year demonstrated its effectiveness against a single target, but some speculate that it isn’t capable of intercepting large numbers of warheads at once.
As Georgia began to recover from the attack, Russia began strengthening its military ties in the Middle East. During the last days of August, Medvedev invited Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to a Russian resort near the Black Sea. After their meeting, the Russian media announced that advanced Russian missile systems may begin construction in Syria soon. It’s unknown whether these facilities would house nuclear weapons or high powered rockets, but the rumor of either should be enough to fluster nearby Israel.
In the summer of 2006, the anti-Israeli terrorist group Hezbollah fired rockets across the Lebanese-Israeli border. This prompted a military response by the Israeli Defense Force, which engaged Hezbollah’s forces in Lebanon. It’s commonly acknowledged that Hezbollah has strong connections with Hamas and Syria, both of which are under the indirect leadership of their eastern ally, Iran. All of these nations are armed with Russian made weapons from the Cold War, including tanks, fighters, and rockets. After the 2006 war in Lebanon, Israel reported that Hezbollah has installed Russian-built radar guided anti-air defenses. These defenses could be used to shoot down Israeli passenger jets.
Creating a sense of urgency to the whole situation is Iran’s nuclear development program. Russia began aiding Iran with its nuclear research in 1995 when they signed a contract to finish building the Bushehr nuclear power plant, which was abandoned by Western nations during the Islamic Revolution of 1979. The US and Israel fear that Iran will use nuclear technology to produce a weapon of mass destruction; however, Russia’s status as a permanent member of the UN Security Council has made it difficult for resolutions to be passed against Iran’s use of nuclear energy. Reflecting the views of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had repeatedly called for Israel’s annihilation. In response, Israel has stated that it will launch a preemptive air strike against Iran, unless Iran agrees to cease it’s nuclear research program and concede to US and UN demands. Such an airstrike may prompt a war that could engulf the entire Middle East.
President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, the two men pulling Russia’s strings, are well aware that America’s economy is on the verge of collapse. These men are smart and aggressive. It’s no coincidence that Russia is the second largest oil producing country in the world, followed closely by their oil rich allies Venezuela and Iran. With the United States already engaged in two major conflicts and obsessed with a national conversation centered on “change”, Russia knows that its provocations are likely to go unchallenged by America. This is the nature of the new Cold War: taunt your opponent where he is weak, but never directly engage him.
VIDEOS:
A clip of a Russian Tupolev Tu-160 bomber taking off and landing
A CNN story about the Russian bombers in Latin America and the rising tensions between NATO and Russia
A Sky News story from 2007 that covers Russia’s Air Force activity under Vladimir Putin
